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Business in a World of Uncertainty: Conflict or Shared Prosperity World Investment and Political Risk (2010 & 2012): Investment and Political Risk in Conflict-Affected and Fragile Economies Doing business in fragile contexts situations present significant risks for companies but also holds the potential for substantial rewards in terms of reaching new markets. The risks associated with not engaging in these contexts outweigh most of the risks of engaging in the first place. Political and social risks remain a top obstacle to private sector flows in fragile contexts. Companies operating in fragile contexts constantly face risks of possible destruction of assets, unavailability of inputs and adequate human resources resulting from the lack of infrastructure and weak institutional and regulatory frameworks. For many companies operating in these contexts, appropriate risk management is essential to effective engagement in fragile situations to deliver longer-term and transformational results. World Investment and Political Risks_2010 World Investment and Political Risks_2012 　 World Development Report (2011): Conflict, Security and Development The private sector can play a vital role in conflict-affected contexts as a key enabler of economic and social development. Businesses operating in these contexts are going beyond their historical focus on extractive industries and shifting toward more investments in SMEs and education which stimulate sustainable employment, entrepreneurship, and local innovation. Some 1.5 billion people live in countries affected by repeated cycles of political violence and instability. No low-income fragile or conflict-affected country has yet to achieve a single Millennium Development Goal. Fixing the economic, political, and security problems that disrupt development and trap fragile states in poverty and fragility require strengthening national institutions and improving governance in ways that prioritizes economic growth and sustainable development. World Development Report_2011 Resource Revolution: Meeting the World’s Energy, Materials, Food and Water Needs In a world of resource scarcity—and environmental and regulatory risks—companies need to integrate resource-related issues and broader sustainability challenges into their strategic thinking and operational planning. In the coming decades, demand for resources is set to continue to rise dramatically even as supply constraints multiply, posing challenges for economic growth, the environment, and social well-being. To overcome potential resource constraints, the adoption of a more sustainable approach in the productivity of how resources are extracted, converted, and used is required to head off potential resource constraints over the next 20 years. Resource Revolution: Meeting the World's energy, materials, food, and water needs   Understanding Water Risks: A Primer on the Consequences of Water Scarcity for Government and Business Water-related risks are an emerging threat to businesses. As businesses seek to secure long-term prosperity, to maintain competitive advantage and to secure stability and choice in supply chains, increasing water scarcity presents physical, financial, regulatory and reputational risks. Water scarcity is one of the key challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The continuing availability of water underpins action on food security, energy security, poverty reduction, economic growth, conflict reduction, climate change adaptation and biodiversity loss. Understanding Water Risks 　 Agriculture in 2020: Sustainability Threats and Business Solutions   McKinsey on Supply Chain The supply chain issues have become increasingly important for companies. In many sectors, the success or failure of individual companies to take advantage of global opportunities depends on their ability to integrate global supply chains. The globalization of consumption patterns spurred by rising tide of global uncertainty and business complexity will have supply chain implications for decades to come. Many global supply chains are not equipped to cope with the world we are entering. During uncertain times, these issues are becoming increasingly important for companies as integrating supply chain risks into business operations usually translates into better performance for the business. McKinsey on supply chain: Select Publications   McKinsey: Four Lessons for Transforming African Agriculture Investments from the private sector in the agriculture sector already are significant and vital in a handful of African countries. The African agriculture is at a turning point. The private sector investments in the agriculture sector are continuing to rise rapidly coupled with governments’ adoption of market-friendly policies promoting investments in the sector. High and volatile food prices underline the importance of development efforts toward the agriculture sector in Africa. For greater development results, agricultural programs require the active engagement of private agents such as farmers or farmers’ organizations, input suppliers, warehouse operators, buyers, and traders, including international trading companies. Four lessons on transforming Africa Agriculture: McKinsey on Africa agriculture   Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can It Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits? Investment interest of companies and financial institutions in emerging markets farmland is increasing exponentially. Given commodity price volatility, growing human and environmental pressures, and worries about food security, this interest will continue to increase drastically in the years ahead. The emerging markets need more and better investment in agriculture to reduce poverty, increase economic growth, and promote environmental sustainability. Investments in agriculture are critical to economic growth and development but expansions pose serious environmental and social challenges and that action from the public and private sector will be needed to reduce detrimental impacts. Rising global interest in farmland 　 The Way Forward in a World of Uncertainty. The Role of Firms, Civil Society, Governments and Academia   Inclusive Green Growth Businesses have a major role to play in providing solutions to inclusive green growth. Their capacity to innovate, skills and production processes enables businesses to play a vital role in promoting the inclusive green growth. This means that governments need to influence the behavior of firms by providing appropriate incentives and regulations in addition to the right economic incentives. For emerging economies, rapid economic growth is necessary to meet the urgent development needs of the poor. But the economic growth will be unsustainable in the long run unless it is both socially inclusive and green. Inclusive green growth increases efficiency by reducing unnecessary wasting of energy and natural resources, improving urban planning to make the best use of public transport and other services, creating multiuse infrastructure, and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies that provide greater benefit to the wealthy and are a costly way to help the poor. Inclusive green growth_May 2012